MSC GLOBAL ENERGY 2050: Energy and geopolitical Modeling under Deep Uncertainty

(December 2018) In partnership with The Atlantic Council (Washington D.C) and TU Delft (Delft, The Netherlands), SAT Strategic Advisors for Transformation GmbH has developed a truly dynamic and holistic Global Energy 2050 Model focusing on the impact of potential future energy mix scenarios on geopolitics, energy markets, and geo-economics. Through a process of modeling the interactions of key drivers and energy consumption phenomena and production at country, regional, and global levels, the project builds scenarios to investigate broad geopolitical and market impacts across different timescales and test policy options which seize opportunities and minimize risk.

The new website Global Energy 2050: Projections Under Deep Uncertainty, developed with the support of Italian energy company Eni, is a scenario-visualization platform designed to allow users to explore the Global Energy 2050 Model and several initial scenarios developed during the first-run of the Global Energy 2050 Project in 2018 (Version 1.1). For the new website please find details here.

The Global Energy 2050 Model

The Global Energy 2050 Project relies on a "model of models" - a series of overlapping popu-lation, GDP, energy supply/demand, and consumption/production sub-models initialized at the country level and aggregated at sub-regional, regional, and global levels. In these sub-models, variables such as resource extraction, resource demand, and resource price elasticity interact through a series of non-linear feedback loops called System Dynamics (SD) models.

Using these feedback loops, the Global Energy 2050 model conducts Exploratory Modeling Analysis (EMA) under Deep Uncertainty (DU) to generate hundreds of thousands of futures for an exogenously-designed scenario (referred to as an ensemble of future worlds). As a result, while the model is non-deterministic in its results, it is more capable of identifying actions, policies, or other variables which may be driving the results of particular scenarios by capturing the breadth of possible futures.

These futures can be examined through a series of Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) produced under each run of the scenario. Depending on the interests of the viewer, each KPI can then be analyzed by the high, low, and median-bounding trendlines of the scenario runs across the examined timeline.

The initial scenarios examined were:

  • Base Case: The Energy System in 2050

  • Going Green

  • War in the Middle East

  • Russian Sanctions

The Global Energy 2050 Model was introduced at the Atlantic Council Global Energy Forum in Abu Dhabi (January 11 to 13, 2019). The presentation can be seen here.

MSC Robust Decision Making and Strategic Foresight under Deep Uncertainty: "State Resilience and Failed States"

(December 2016) The flow of refugees, that Europe has to deal with since autumn of 2015, originated mainly from war-torn countries in the Middle East. Chances are very high that Europe will experience even greater flows of refugees from the african continent. Germany has therefore in the meantime put more political focus on the future of african states and their potential risk of turning into a "failed state".

In the face of the growing and overwhelming complexity in world affairs, Exploratory Modeling and Analysis (EMA) is not only a very powerful scientific approach for Strategic Foresight under Deep Uncertainty but also the most advanced methodology available today with regard to exploratory policy analysis for decision makers in politics and companies.

In partnership with the Munich Security Conference, SAT Strategic Advisors for Transformation GmbH is developing a dynamic simulation model dealing holistically with the robustness, stability, and fragility of african states. The dynamic simulation model that will be run on the EMA workbench with respect to robust decision making integrates the complexity of the socio-economic, political, ecological, and technological realm, as well as population dynamics with state governance and corruption with the special focus on crisis prevention and nation building.

Please find details here.


Visualization of simulation results for African states (in cooperation with datenflug GmbH, Berlin)


(March 2016) Robust Decision Making and Strategic Foresight under Deep Uncertainty: “The Syria/Refugee Complex”

In the face of the growing and overwhelming complexity in world affairs, Exploratory Modeling and Analysis (EMA) is not only a very powerful scientific approach for Strategic Foresight under Deep Uncertainty but also the most advanced methodology available today with regard to exploratory policy analysis for decision makers in politics and companies. In partnership with the Munich Security Conference, SAT Strategic Advisors for Transformation GmbH has developed a dynamic simulation model dealing holistically with the “Syria/Refugee Complex” in Europe. Several scenarios have been published in the meantime:

  • An overview of five possible scenarios have been published in the German newspaper DIE WELT on March 17th, 2016, see (German) publication here.

  • A video in the German television channel N24 visualizes the five published scenarios and can be found here.

  • A radio interview from March 19th, 2016, in “Deutschlandradio Kultur” featuring the “Syria/Refugee Complex” and Strategic Foresight under Deep Uncertainty in general can be found here.

  • A second radio interview from May 18th, 2016, in “Hessischer Rundfunk – hr2 Kultur” featuring issues of Strategic Foresight under Deep Uncertainty can be found here.

  • A simulation scenario for the refugee crisis is shown on the German Channel “ZDF Hauptstadtstudio – Berlin Direkt” on March 20th, 2016, see contribution here.


As a general statement, it is difficult – not to say impossible – to make robust policy decisions for real-world issues that are characterized by both Dynamic Complexity and Deep Uncertainty without the support of dynamic simulation models. According to Robert Lempert, “Deep uncertainty” is today defined as situations where analysts do not know, or the parties to a decision cannot agree on (i) the appropriate conceptual models that describe the relationships among the key driving forces that will shape the long-term future (e.g. different drivers and underlying structures than today), (ii) the probability distributions used to represent uncertainty about key variables and parameters in the mathematical representations of these conceptual models, and/or (iii) how to value the desirability of alternative out­comes.


According to Peter Senge, “Dynamic complexity” is found in situations where cause and effect are subtle, and where the effects over time of interventions are not obvious. It arises, among else, from the complex interactions of systems, markets, institutions, products, regulators, (groups of) actors, and strategies/policies/regulations. In this respect conventional forecasting, planning, and analysis methods are not suited for dealing with dynamic complexity and even less so for dealing with Deep Uncertainty. In the presence of Deep Uncertainty, decision making becomes an extremely difficult task and decision makers need more than traditional prediction-based decision analysis to help them choose among potential future alternatives. Instead of trying to predict, dynamic simulation models should be used to explore what could happen and what policies and strategies would hold across the complete multi-dimensional uncertainty space. As a new and ground-breaking methodology Explorative Modeling and Analysis for Robust Decision Making supports decision makers in their strategic foresight process by helping to identify robust strategies with respect to an unkown future and, therefore, helps them to improve real-world decisions.

Exploratory Modeling and Analysis is a new research methodology that uses computational experiments to analyze complex and uncertain systems and support long-term strategic decision making under Deep Uncertainty and consists of:

  • developing “exploratory” – fast and relative simple – models of any socio-economic system

  • generating an “ensemble of future worlds” (thousands to millions of scenarios) by sweeping all uncertainty ranges and varying structure and boundaries

  • specifying variety of policy options and strategies (preferably adaptive ones)

  • simulating, calculating and comparing the performance of the various options across the “ensemble of future worlds” to identify potential threats, risks, emerging issues and opportunities (also with respect to horizon scanning), analyzing their dynamic behavior, bifurcations, tipping points etc.

Explorative Modeling and Analysis and Strategic Foresight under Deep Uncertainty as applied in war gaming projects by SAT Strategic Advisors for Transformation GmbH is also considered the approach of choice for other difficult challenges in policy areas today such as the Euro Crisis and Bank Runs, Grexit, State Resilience/Failed States, global pandemics, insurgency and counter-insurgency, national health care systems, societal aging, mobility, global supply chain logistics, food and water resources, and energy issues as well.

MSC Dynamic Simulation under deep uncertainty: "The Syria/Refugee Complex"

(December 2015) As a partner of Munich Security Conference, SAT Strategic Advisors for Transformation GmbH has presented a dynamic simulation model during the Munich Strategy Forum at Schloss Elmau on November 22nd, 2015 dealing with the "Syria/Refugee Complex". In a holistic approach, this simulation model embraces the complexity of refugee flows from Syria to Turkey to the Balkan Route and from there to all major European countries and allows for detailed What-If- and War Gaming Scenarios "under deep uncertainty". The model focusses on the refugee flows for the next five years.

The dynamic simulation model deals with (1.) internal policies within the European countries, (2.) policies with respect to national borders as well as (3.) policies focusing on the effects of ending the conflict in Syria. The following key per­formance indicators for what-if scenarios are set up:

  • Inflow per month for each country and outflow per month for each country
  • Net flow per month for each country
  • Cumulative number of refugees for each country
  • Cumulative number of refugees per capita for each country
  • Economic and political stress for each country

32 What-If-Scenarios have been simulated "under deep uncertainty" until now. For more information see here.

For detailed information, go here

SAT Strategic Advisors for Transformation AG transformed into SAT Strategic Advisors for Transformation GmbH.

(November 2014) SAT Strategic Advisors for Transformation AG has been transformed into SAT Strategic Advisors for Transformation GmbH. President and General Manager is Dr. Thomas Arzt. Special focus of the new company the strategic implementation of Simulation-based Complexity Management and War Gaming for holistic risk assessment.

Gurobi New Partnership: SAT Strategic Advisors for Transformation AG announces the adoption of the Gurobi Optimizer to help provide their clients with the best possible optimization applications.

(August 2013) SAT Strategic Advisors for Transformation AG, based in Freiburg, Germany, is pleased to announce their adoption of the Gurobi Optimizer for use in building optimization solutions for their customers.

"Beyond our own experience with Gurobi's advanced algorithms and full-range of APIs, many published benchmarks and studies show Gurobi is the most technically advanced Mathematical Programming solver available," said Dr. Thomas Arzt, CEO of SAT AG. "Gurobi's focus on continual improvement is important since we focus on delivering the best performing optimization solutions possible, now and over time, for our clients."

"Of course, performance wasn't the only reason we chose Gurobi. Keeping projects on-time and on-budget is something we pride ourselves on. As a result, good documentation and direct access to support staffed by Gurobi optimization experts played as big a role in our decision."

This relationship further expands the number of ISVs world-wide adopting the Gurobi Optimizer to help them meet the needs of their clients. "ISVs such as SAT AG are a critical part of our business," said Dr. Robert Bixby, CEO and co-founder of Gurobi Optimization, Inc. "That is why our ISV program offers flexible licensing and great support tailored to the needs of companies like SAT AG. In addition, we make a point of not building applications that compete with those of our ISVs; we're a partner, not a competitor, and are very pleased that SAT AG has chosen to switch to the Gurobi Optimizer."

About SAT AG

SAT Strategic Advisors for Transformation AG, headquartered in Freiburg, Germany, is a worldwide operating simulation and optimization consulting company dedicated to "Simulation-based Complexity Management" and the systematic application of Discrete Event Simulation, System Dynamics, Agent-Based Modeling, and leading edge Optimization Techniques. SAT Strategic Advisors for Transformation AG, being recognized as the leading simulation company in Germany, was founded by Dr. Thomas Arzt, who has over 30 years of experience in simulation and optimization.

About Gurobi Optimization, Inc.

Gurobi ( is in the business of helping companies solve their hardest problems by providing the best optimization solver possible, outstanding support, and no surprises pricing. The Gurobi Optimizer is a state-of-the-art solver for linear programming (LP), quadratic programming (QP), quadratically constrained programming (QCP), mixed-integer linear programming (MILP), mixed-integer quadratic programming (MIQP), and mixed-integer quadratically constrained programming (MIQCP). It was designed from the ground up to exploit modern architectures and multi-core processors, using the most advanced implementations of the latest algorithms. Founded in 2008, Gurobi Optimization is based in Houston, TX with its European office located in Bad Homburg, Germany.

Further Information:
Gurobi Optimizer
Gurobi Compute Server

New Publication Prof. Dr. Erhard Meyer-Galow and Dr. Thomas Arzt

(October 2012) Prof. Dr. Erhard Meyer-Galow, chairman of the advisory board of SAT Strategic Advisors for Transformation AG, and Dr. Thomas Arzt, CEO of SAT AG, explain the advantages of Simulation-based Complexity-Management as decision support in the latest issue of "CHEManager" (19/2012)

online version: Unternehmensführung in Zeiten steigender Risiken
pdf download: Unternehmensführung in Zeiten steigender Risiken

Publication Prof. Dr. Erhard Meyer-Galow on Simulation-Based Complexity-Management

(September 2012) Prof. Dr. Erhard Meyer-Galow, chairman of the advisory board of SAT Strategic Advisors for Transformation AG, explains the advantages of Simulation-based Complexity-Management in the latest issue of "CHEManager" (17/2012)

online version: Flugsimulator für Manager
pdf download: Flugsimulator für Manager

SAT Strategic Advisors for Transformation AG now Flagship Supporter of the FuturICT Project - Participatory Computing for Our Complex World


(June 2012) SAT Strategic Advisors for Transformation AG is now an official supporter of the FuturICT Flagship Initiative. FuturICT is a visionary project that will deliver new science and technology to explore, understand and manage our connected world. This will inspire new information and communication technologies (ICT) that are socially adaptive and socially interactive, supporting collective awareness. The ultimate goal of the FuturICT flagship project is to understand and manage complex, global, socially interactive systems, with a focus on sustainability and resilience. FuturICT will build a Living Earth Platform, a simulation, visualization and participation platform to support decision making of policy makers, business people and citizens.

Why do we need FuturICT?
Today, society and technology are changing at a pace that often outstrips our capacity to understand and manage them. It seems that we know more about the universe than about our society. Therefore it is time to use the power of information to explore social and economic life on Earth and discover options for a sustainable future. As the recent financial crisis demonstrates, the systems that we have built to organise our affairs now possess an unprecedented degree of complexity and interdependence among their technological, social and economic components. This complexity often results in counter-intuitive effects driven by positive feedbacks that lead to domino-like cascades of failures. Neither the precepts of traditional science, nor our collective experience from a simpler past, adequately prepare us for the future. It is simply impossible to understand and manage complex networks using conventional tools. We need to put systems in place that highlight, or prevent, conceivable failures and allow us to quickly recover from those that we cannot predict. We need this insight to help manage our financial markets but also to tackle other risks, such as flu pandemics, social instabilities, or criminal networks. At the same time, policymakers are currently faced with major decisions of how to plan the general infrastructure of services to cope with the demands of the future, and what is more, to do so in a sustainable manner. The same decisions are also posed to individuals who wish to improve their own lives. Thus now is the time to create a paradigm shift moving from a focus on the system components and their properties towards evaluating their interactions. These interactions are often hard to measure but create collective, emergent dynamics which are characteristic of strongly coupled systems. For more information please visit for the website of the FuturICT Flagship Proposal.


The FuturICT flagship proposal intends to unify hundreds of the best scientists in Europe in a 10 year 1 billion EUR program to explore social life on earth and everything it relates to. The FuturICT flagship proposal will produce historic breakthroughs and provide powerful new ways to manage challenges that make the modern world so difficult to predict, including the financial crisis.

If you have any questions please contact info [at]


Davos 2012: Crisis, Globalization and Complexity

(January 2012) The Great Transformation: Shaping New Models is the slogan of this year's World Economic Forums in Davos. Klaus Schwab, co-founder und organizer of the forum, points to a world revolving in a state of collective burnout. The past year conveys the impression that the global system is on the verge of breaking up: financial and debt crisis, unemployment, political paralysis, social injustice, food and energy shortages, to name just a few phenomena. And this seems to be only the beginning. According to the tenor of the world economic summit, we not only have to find new models in order to tackle our world-wide challenges together, but beyond that we have to develop a new leadership model that catches on in the modern world: leadership based on visions and values. No answer has been given yet, though, where the visions and values should come from.

Decision-makers in politics and business are slowly realizing that the excessive complexity and volatility of today's world is accompanied by a further increase in interconnectedness, which also means an extremely high interdependency within a world bent on globalizing more and more. Systemic Thinking is the new mantra. Interestingly, in the moment of global burnout, complexity science is finding its way into Davos, propagated by the renowned Santa Fe Institute, a global center for complexity research. In this respect, complexity could become the hot topic of this year's Davos summit: leading scientists from complexity science are discussing new ways to modelling complex-dynamic systems like financial markets and economic systems with politicians and business leaders.

Resilience is the keyword in this context. It describes the tolerance of a system against disturbances. For example, how are we to configure global production and logistics networks in the face of unpredictable events, i.e. external shocks? Which risks are threatening global supply chains in the light of events like Fukushima, or the floods which recently led to closing down the semiconductor production in Thailand? Before long the next disturbances could be initiated by the closing of the strait of Hormuz - how robust are global networks of supply chains in the face of such a political event?

The answers to the questions posed by the dramatically increased volatility given by scenario planning and risk management models in the sense of Wargaming. Holistic Management and Simulation-Based Complexity Management provide integral methods and enterprise models which identify the influence of external and internal disturbances on the whole enterprise model by using what-if scenarios. Thus, global supply chain and transportation networks are not only evaluated quantitatively. In addition, areas of robust business as well as counterintuitive risks are identified - this is Integrative Risk Assessment, based on the latest methods of Operations Research.

Natural and environmental disasters, geopolitical unrest, economical and technological changes, terrorism or piracy: it cannot be predicted when and where "black swans" will emerge. We expect and know from military and civil defense organisations that they are prepared for emergencies through planning and practice. Business continuity and crisis management methods derived from the use of holistic enterprise models can also prepare the Board and the Management Team adequately, in order to minimize the effect of disturbances and shocks on their enterprise. The safeguarding of employees and goods is a professional duty of the Board and the Management Team. Further, Business owners will also insist on an appropriate safeguarding of their interests in crisis situations.

You can find the article New Models for Addressing Supply Chain and Transportation Risk here.

Arenasphere 2012


(January 2012) After the success in 2010, also in 2012 the internationale Arena® Usermeeting Arenasphere will take place. The comprehensive training program and interaction with leaders in simulation will provide you with invaluable experience for your company. With insightful keynote presentations, advanced training, extensive use case studies, and valuable networking opportunities­this is an event that cannot be missed. For more information, please click the logo.

Publication Prof. Dr. Erhard Meyer-Galow on intuition and innovation

(December 2011) How do new ideas, change of paradigm, and new visions emerge? What are the conditions for innovation?
The chairman of the supervisory board of SAT Strategic Advisors for Transformation AG, Prof. Dr. Erhard Meyer-Galow, has compiled his thoughts in the recent issue 23-24/2011 of the CHEManager.
How the process of innovation is initiated and carried on with sustainabilty can be found here:

Strategic realignment of SAT AG

(September 2011) SAT Simulations- und Automations-Technologie AG has confirmed a strategic realignment and a renaming to SAT Strategic Advisors for Transformation AG. The corporate purpose is consulting and support of business management in the implementation and application of Simulation-based Complexity Management.

In addition to the successful application of expertise in modelling and optimization during recent years, SAT Strategic Advisors for Transformation AG now introduces a completely new methodology of modelling and optimization for every kind of complex business system in the market that can be used by every corporate management on strategic, tactical and operational levels with significant EBIT increase.

Comet™ in the energy industry

(May 2011) The Comet platform is proving a valuable tool in the Power Industry, with important applications in the design and maintenance of "Smart Grids". In the context of Renewable Energy Integration, an approach using "Discrepancy Bounded Local Search" in combination with power flow simulations using DC or AC models has proved an effective technique to combine Generation Expansion Planning and Transmission Network Expansion Planning. This technique has been applied to expansion planning in the Western United States. The mathematical programming capabilities of Comet have also been put to use in Strategic Planning for Fault or Disaster Recovery, where it is used to recommend deployment of resources to optimize the capability to restore power under fault or breakdown conditions.


Simulation-based Complexity Management in partnership with A.T. Kearney

(April 2011) We live in a time of paradigm shift, which is dominated by the financial and economic crisis. The complexity in and surrounding companies is increasing dramatically. Data flood, global connectivity and permanent market fluctuations are the main drivers. But the economy is still making decisions on "gut instinct". The result: unrecognized EBIT potentials, and risks. An entirely new and holistic management approach makes the vast complexity manageable - simulation-based enterprise management enables sustainable EBIT increases of three to five percentage points.

Firms are prevented from exploiting the full potential of their EBIT by not actively controlling complexity. Product portfolios are exploding, processes and systems are growing increasingly out of control and organizational structures are becoming increasingly complex. The resulting complexity is usually not only inefficient, it also inhibits companies from realizing their full potential and EBIT to achieve their growth objectives. Together with A.T. Kearney, the leading consulting company in the field of strategic Complexity Management, the SAT Simulations- und Automations- Technologie AG offers a new, holistic methodology for "Simulation-based Complexity Management". We assist our clients to control the continuously growing complexity of their business environment and to optimize across the silo structures of a company. "Value creating" complexity should be maximized and "value destroying" complexity minimized to realize the full potential of EBIT.

For further information please see (pdf download), under A. T. Kearney or Complexity Management.

A publication in Handelsblatt, click here.

SAT Simulation-based Complexity Management with Simio® for Executive Decision Support

(January 2010) There can not be any doubt that with the collapse of the USSR in 1989, with the events of 9/11 and the global finance and economic crisis in 2008, our world has finally entered an epochal transformation process within an emerging age of global connectivity. Some say that we are trying to navigate through the most fundamental transformation process of human mankind. History seems to have bounced back into its normal mode, a mode governed by risk, uncertainty and non-linear dynamics. As can be easily shown, phases of overwhelming instability and turbulence are at the same time phases of highest sensitivity - for sustainable change and shift in worldview.

What up til now seemed only to be the activity of an intellectual elite or scientists, the holistic worldview and the science of complexity, has now been taken up by the business elites and political decision makers. For example, the Executive Summary of the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2009 in Davos states: "(...) Complexity and interdependency are not only characteristics of globalization but are also at the root of a systemic crisis. Therefore, future solutions will need to be developed in a holistic and interdisciplinary way to ensure that the concerns of all stakeholders are addressed and a broad-based backlash is avoided. (...) And to this end, the Annual Meeting 2009 will be organized under the theme "Shaping the Post-Crisis World" within the objective to catalyse a holistic and systematic approach to improve the state of the world in a manner that integrates all stakeholders of global society." And in the Annual Meeting 2010 with the title Improve the State of the World: Retink, Redesign Rebuild - The Transformation Continues it is stated: "The financial crisis of 2008 and the "Great Recession" of 2009 raise tough questions about the future of the global economy. However, they also provide insights into economic interdependencies, governance gaps and systemic risks intrinsic to globalization. These revelations in turn compel us to rethink business models, financial innovation and risk management".

It can be argued today that all the safety and recovery actions of governments worldwide and of the Federal Reserve banks were right and timely, however, in a complex and connected world they might not be more than the rearrangement of deck chairs on the Titanic - in a time of crisis they all lacked a fundamental paradigm, the holistic and systemic worldview as well as the appropriate tools to manage complexity. In the meantime it is claimed that the academic economists did not anticipate the global crisis - a claim that is obviously true since they still live with a view of markets that is not appropriate for our time. We painfully learn today that open markets are not semi-static systems in the vicinity of equilibrium, but complex adaptive systems in the sense that micromotives of market participants strongly determine macrobehaviour of an economy. The finance and global economic crisis owes its existence to the fact that the challenges of the 21st century were met with the worldview and methodologies of the 19th century. A mechanistic-newtonian worldview, the clock-world, based on determinism, causality, reductionism, static thinking, and gaussian distributions, - although it has worked well in the last 300 years - can not deal with the emerging dynamics of the age of global connectivity whose structural elements embrace non-linearity, evolution, emergence, adaption, interrelatedness, interconnectedness and Black Swans - Everything is connected to Everything: hen kai pan, this insight of the Greek ancient world has today suddenly reappeared.

A new way of thinking, a vision, is therefore needed, especially for the decision makers in business and politics - and the tools incorporating this new thinking are already available. The Gartner Group has just released a study regarding Top 10 Strategic Technologies for 2010 and has identified simulation and optimization as the leading trend, together with cloud computing. This trend finds an appropriate spearhead in a new method SAT Simulations- und Automations-Technologie AG is bringing to the market, a method coined SAT Simulation-based Complexity Management. This method allows for immediate executive decision support with regards to strategic, tactical, and operational issues that an enterprise today faces in today's era of risk, uncertainty, and volatility.

Our new method SAT Simulation-based Complexity Management is structured according to the following three steps:

  • Complexity-Audit and Assessment within the enterprise
  • then - depending on the task - modelling will be done with simulation techniques such as Discrete Event Simulation (DES), Agent-based Modeling (ABM) and System Dynamics (SD), also integrating optimization methods and algorithms such as Constraint Programming, Mathematical Programming, Local Search etc
  • and finally the embedding of the model into the culture of the enterprise for daily decision support and holistic change management.

The core of our method is the powerful multi-paradigm Simulator Simio®, whose simulation engine embraces Discrete Event Simulation, Agent-based Modeling and System Dynamics in a new and visionary approach.

Simio® with its game-changing approach to simulation is the next-generation tool to successfully sustain our voyage into an era of holistic thinking. SAT Simulation-based Complexity Management delivers simulation and optimisation solutions contributing to strategic, tactical and operational performance improvements. Complex-dynamic systems can be efficiently analyzed and their behaviour and interactions can be varied and explored in silico. Business leaders can now, for example, model entire business organizations creating full-scale virtual laboratories in which to test their organizations and markets and try strategies "offline" before exposing themselves to the risks of a competitive market place. To cope with today's complex business problems, executives need to strive not to predict and control, but to understand and adapt.

The consequences of a new way of thinking, namely a thinking in holistic terms, has been described by quantum physicist and complexity scientist Heinz Pagels, who wrote in 1988: "I am convinced that the nations and people who master the new science of complexity will become the economic, cultural and political superpowers of the next century".

For questions and technical details please contact info [at]